U.S. policy experts confident of future climate action despite Trump election

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In 2015, the world came together to achieve the landmark Paris climate agreement. But in 2016, Donald Trump’s ascendency to the U.S. presidency stunned the world, as he promised to withdrew the U.S. from the Paris accord and moved to disrupt action on climate change.
The Biden administration worked to reverse that damage, with the U.S. again taking a leadership role in global climate summits and passing the Inflation Reduction Act, one of the most ambitious U.S. laws ever to combat global warming and boost the post-carbon economy.
Now, with Trump elected again, the world stands ready for his climate denialism, and his likely withdrawal of the U.S. for a second time from the Paris Agreement. Global momentum is expected to continue unabated, with alternative energy thriving, Brazil hosting COP30 in 2025, and China and the EU doubling down on climate action.
In the U.S., “Just as we did during the last Trump administration, we are going to put a focus on our work with cities and with states and many private-sector leaders who stood tall then and stand tall now,” said Gina McCarthy, EPA administrator during Barack Obama’s second term, and managing co-chair of America Is All In, an NGO.

With the start of the 29^th U.N. climate summit, COP29, less than a week away, former U.S. environmental leaders said they have no delusions as to what the election of Donald Trump to the presidency means to the nation’s climate policies — and to the world.

Gone are the misplaced hopes common in 2016 that U.S. President-elect Trump might listen to policy experts, be persuaded about the science, be open to not reversing course, to not undo environmental regulations, to stop calling climate change a hoax and heed dire warnings of the existential threat posed by global warming. He ignored them all.

Thus, such hope was gone this week, as a former U.S. United Nations climate summit negotiator and former head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (both under President Barack Obama), spoke to international journalists two days after Trump became president-elect for the second time.

Instead, there was pragmatic talk about current and future climate calamities smashing wealthy countries, climate action accelerating at the local level and the favorable economics of the green energy transition.

Jonathan Pershing, Obama’s envoy at the climate summit in Marrakech, Morocco, in 2016, noted, “Not a single country followed the United States in withdrawing from the [2015] Paris Agreement, which is what the Trump administration did, and says it intends to do again. I don’t think anyone else will follow suit at this point either.”

Gina McCarthy, EPA administrator during Obama’s second term, added, “Just as we did during the last Trump administration, we are going to put a focus on our work with cities and with states and many private-sector leaders who stood tall then and stand tall now. … Taking action has never been for the faint of heart when it comes to climate and the environment.”

Pershing and McCarthy spoke in an hour-long virtual press conference Nov. 7 that was organized by the World Resources Institute mere days before COP29 opens in the petrostate of Azerbaijan. They were joined at the press conference by several WRI climate policy experts.

Jonathan Pershing was the U.S. negotiator for the Obama Administration in Marrakech, Morocco, at COP22 in 2016, the first UN climate summit after the historic signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The Marrakech meeting was largely upended and derailed by Donald Trump’s surprise election at the outset of the 2016 summit. Image by Justin Catanoso for Mongabay.

No surprise this time

Both former U.S. officials emphasized that Trump’s election this time was not the global shock that it was in 2016. In fact, they said, climate leaders around the world have been preparing for this possible outcome. The speakers stressed that the economics of investing in zero-carbon renewable energy have advanced dramatically over the past eight years.

“Studies show that countries like China, for example, have gotten 40% of their GDP from green energy and green technology,” said Pershing, now the environment director with the Hewlett Foundation. “The idea that they would forgo that growth because the United States is withdrawn seems not only implausible but highly, highly unlikely. I can’t imagine any country chooses to cut off that much of its economic development.”

McCarthy, managing co-chair of America Is All In, a coalition of cities, states and corporations committed to climate action, said the same goes for the U.S. economy.

“[O]ur country has seen the most significant investments in rebuilding our economy over the past four years,” she said. “Together with the Inflation Reduction Act (with billions for clean energy investments), the bipartisan infrastructure law, and the CHIPS and Science Act has led to $910 billion in public and private-sector investments. That’s all across our country, as manufacturing plants are built to produce batteries to help clean up our heavy industries and deliver more clean, renewable energy than we’ve ever seen before.

“For the first time in decades,” McCarthy added, “communities that needed a break are seeing new jobs, lower electricity bills, cleaner transportation and more green spaces. The bulk of these clean-energy projects are operating or are under construction in Republican districts.”

Gina McCarthy, director of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during President Barack Obama’s second term, has also been an adviser on climate policy to President Joe Biden. She is now co-chair of America is All In, a coalition of 5,000 entities — U.S. cities, states, corporations, universities and tribal lands — committed to climate action at the subnational level. Image courtesy of America Is All In.

Lost trust, again

Pershing and McCarthy both also said they were not being Pollyannish. They acknowledged that the world is about to see its hottest year on record (for the second year running) and that hurricanes and floods super-charged by global warming are destroying affluent tourist economies in places like Asheville, North Carolina, on Florida’s Gulf Coast, and in Valencia, Spain — with deadly heatwaves, record droughts, floods and wildfires being reported almost weekly somewhere on the planet.

At such a perilous time, they noted, the U.S. federal government is demonstrating once again that it cannot be trusted to defend or enact policies aimed at slowing the rate of destruction. In fact, they said, a second Trump administration will almost certainly take actions to make things worse by promoting more fossil fuel extraction while again rolling back conservation actions implemented by the current Democratic president.

“I served early on in the Biden administration, and it took the entire first year for people to reestablish a sense that the U.S. was a trustworthy partner,” Pershing said. “It’s a depressing story. The U.S. has retaken a leadership role [on climate] and is about to abdicate that role again.”

Just the same, Pershing offered some realistic context, especially noteworthy in the run-up to COP29. As the wealthiest of wealthy nations, the U.S. government has so far delivered far less financing for global conservation or climate change adaptation than China, Norway or Germany. “We should be clear,” he said, “the United States has had a very limited ability to put finance into the system because Congress hasn’t approved substantial new funding.”

Michael Bloomberg at COP23 during the announcement of We Are Still In. Image by Justin Catanoso for Mongabay.

Cities, states and business step up

In 2017, at COP23 in Bonn, Germany — during Trump’s first year in office — the U.S. federal government played a minimal role. Replacing it was a significant effort led by philanthropist Michael Bloomberg and then-California Governor Jerry Brown. An unofficial event space was created by a coalition of U.S. cities, states and corporations, dubbed We Are Still In, which came forward to offset the absence of White House leadership.

McCarthy stressed that the subnational effort in the U.S., not to mention around the world, has only grown since then: “We have to continue to support state and local leaders who have the power and responsibility to deliver programs, policies and investments that really can ensure that the people will be able to adapt and be resilient in the face of today’s unavoidable climate challenges. Change does happen from the bottom up.”

Beyond cities and states, Pershing said the private sector — large corporations, philanthropies and lending institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund — continue to play a bigger role in underwriting climate action.

“With or without the United States, governments are not going to make transfer payments in the trillions of dollars” for climate action, he said. “But private capital will invest as we look at future opportunities.”

Looking ahead to COP30 to be held in 2025 in Belém, Brazil, Pershing added, “This is an ongoing process. Brazil has made clear its prioritization of the climate agenda of President [Luiz Inácio] Lula, who is committed not only to host, but to drive forward next steps on global ambition. The fact that the U.S. is out is unlikely to change Brazil’s posture, or Brazil’s efforts, or the effort being taken by countries around the world to address this problem.”

Justin Catanoso, a regular contributor, has covered seven U.N. climate summits between 2014 and 2021. In October he covered the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity in Cali, Colombia.

Banner image: America’s Pledge represented a commitment by U.S. states, cities, companies and colleges to achieve the carbon cuts agreed to by the U.S. in Paris in 2015, despite Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement during his first term. Trump is expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris accord again when he takes office. Image courtesy of Bloomberg Philanthropies.

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